Betting on virtually any event that has two or more outcomes. One of the first online prediction venues was the Hollywood Stock Exchange in 1996, which used simulated money to buy and sell predictions ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Nathan Goldman is a tax prof. at NC State Univ. An adult man at home, deeply focused on his smartphone, participates in the thrill ...

Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to ...